[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":320},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-\u002Fdocs\u002Fresearch-workflows\u002Fhypothesis-generation-and-testing":3,"docs-nav":196},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"description":16,"extension":189,"meta":190,"navigation":191,"path":192,"seo":193,"stem":194,"__hash__":195},"content\u002Fdocs\u002F3.research-workflows\u002F2.hypothesis-generation-and-testing.md","Hypothesis Generation & Testing",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":177},"minimark",[9,13,17,22,25,31,39,43,46,57,60,65,69,72,77,80,84,87,92,95,99,106,111,114,118,121,124,129,133,156,160],[10,11,5],"h1",{"id":12},"hypothesis-generation-testing",[14,15,16],"p",{},"A literature review tells you what's been said. The next move — where research actually happens — is forming your own hypotheses and stress-testing them against the evidence. Agent Bayes is well-suited to the second half of that loop: you propose, the agent challenges.",[18,19,21],"h2",{"id":20},"step-1-surface-candidate-hypotheses","Step 1 — Surface candidate hypotheses",[14,23,24],{},"If you already have hypotheses in mind, skip ahead. Otherwise, ask the agent to draw out implicit claims from what's on the map.",[26,27,28],"blockquote",{},[14,29,30],{},"Looking at the current mindmap, propose three concrete hypotheses about the Late Bronze Age collapse that the assembled evidence suggests but doesn't yet directly state.",[14,32,33,34,38],{},"Treat the output as a starting point, not a verdict. Edit, combine, discard — these are ",[35,36,37],"em",{},"your"," hypotheses, the agent is just helping you articulate them.",[18,40,42],{"id":41},"step-2-make-each-hypothesis-a-node","Step 2 — Make each hypothesis a node",[14,44,45],{},"Create a dedicated subtree per hypothesis. A useful structure:",[47,48,53],"pre",{"className":49,"code":51,"language":52},[50],"language-text","H1: Climate-driven drought was the primary trigger of the collapse\n├─ Supporting evidence\n├─ Counter-evidence\n├─ Predictions \u002F what we'd expect to see\n└─ Open questions\n","text",[54,55,51],"code",{"__ignoreMap":56},"",[14,58,59],{},"You can build this scaffold manually or ask the Editor to do it:",[26,61,62],{},[14,63,64],{},"Under each of these three hypotheses, create empty child nodes for \"Supporting evidence\", \"Counter-evidence\", \"Predictions\", and \"Open questions\".",[18,66,68],{"id":67},"step-3-populate-the-supporting-side","Step 3 — Populate the supporting side",[14,70,71],{},"For each hypothesis, select the \"Supporting evidence\" node and ask the agent to fill it:",[26,73,74],{},[14,75,76],{},"Find evidence in the KB that supports this hypothesis. Be specific about which claims, papers, and data are doing the work.",[14,78,79],{},"This is a standard research task — the Researcher retrieves, the Editor adds citation-backed claims under the selected node.",[18,81,83],{"id":82},"step-4-steelman-the-opposition","Step 4 — Steelman the opposition",[14,85,86],{},"The critical step. Select \"Counter-evidence\" and explicitly invite the agent to argue the other side:",[26,88,89],{},[14,90,91],{},"Find the strongest counter-evidence to this hypothesis in the KB. Don't soften — present opposing claims at their strongest, with citations.",[14,93,94],{},"This is where the system's bias toward preserving contradicting viewpoints earns its keep. A hypothesis that survives a steelmanned opposition is meaningfully different from one that survived because no one pushed back.",[18,96,98],{"id":97},"step-5-predictions-and-falsifiers","Step 5 — Predictions and falsifiers",[14,100,101,102,105],{},"For each hypothesis, fill in \"Predictions\" with claims of the form ",[35,103,104],{},"\"if H is true, we should observe X\"",". The agent can help generate these from what's already on the map:",[26,107,108],{},[14,109,110],{},"Given this hypothesis and the evidence above, what specific empirical predictions would distinguish it from the main alternatives? List each as a falsifiable claim.",[14,112,113],{},"Predictions you can't check against the KB go into \"Open questions\" — they're what you'd need to do new work to answer.",[18,115,117],{"id":116},"step-6-adjudicate","Step 6 — Adjudicate",[14,119,120],{},"With supporting evidence, counter-evidence, and predictions all in one subtree, the hypothesis is now in a state where you (the human) can make a real judgment. The agent won't decide for you. What it gives you is the structured comparison.",[14,122,123],{},"Useful follow-up:",[26,125,126],{},[14,127,128],{},"Compare these three hypotheses on the strength of their supporting evidence, the difficulty of explaining the counter-evidence, and the testability of their predictions. Don't pick a winner — just lay out the trade-offs.",[18,130,132],{"id":131},"patterns-to-watch-for","Patterns to watch for",[134,135,136,144,150],"ul",{},[137,138,139,143],"li",{},[140,141,142],"strong",{},"Confirmation drift."," If the supporting side balloons and the counter side is thin, re-run Step 4 with sharper phrasing. The agent will go looking harder.",[137,145,146,149],{},[140,147,148],{},"Cherry-picked citations."," Confidence scores help here — low confidence + small number of sources = a claim that depends on too little.",[137,151,152,155],{},[140,153,154],{},"Hidden assumptions."," Ask the agent to make assumptions explicit: \"What does this hypothesis assume that hasn't been stated?\"",[18,157,159],{"id":158},"whats-next","What's next",[134,161,162,170],{},[137,163,164,169],{},[165,166,168],"a",{"href":167},".\u002Fcomparative-analysis","Comparative Analysis"," — formalize the head-to-head comparison.",[137,171,172,176],{},[165,173,175],{"href":174},".\u002Fgap-finding","Gap Finding"," — turn \"Open questions\" into a research 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